Cem Saral, Cockett Group CEO at the Economist Oil Market Overview Seminar 17 June 2019
20 June 2019
The Economist thanked Cem Saral, CEO Cockett Group and members and other guests of the Economist Corporate Network who joined us on 17 June at the Capital Club in Dubai for our Oil Market Outlook.
Cailin Birch, global economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, visiting from London, shared The EIU's five-year forecast for oil prices, explained the current supply and demand forces at work on the market, and outlined the potential risks that might impact on prices.
The Economist stated that `The EIU is expecting the price of Brent Crude oil to be range bound between $60-$70 for the medium term, with the upper and lower limits dictated somewhat by price-sensitive US oil production. At the higher end of the price range, more US oil would come on stream, adding to supply and putting downward pressure on prices; and at the lower end of the price range, some of those facilities would become uneconomical and supply would reduce, putting upwards pressure on prices`.
However, the Economist wrote `there are considerable political risks that are represented by the US/China trade war and the alleged activities of sanctions-hit Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. And those could cause price movements outside the forecast rang`
Cailin's presentation is available here
, and the organisers produced short summary video which can be viewed here
Following Cailin's presentation a roundtable discussion was held, with thought leadership provided by guest speakers Cem Saral, CEO at Cockett Group amongst others.
Cem shared his concerns about the impact of the IMO2020 regulations that will see the imposition of a 0.5% sulphur cap on marine fuel oil from 1 January next year. This will cause an increase in demand from the shipping industry for alternative compliant fuels, with inevitable knock-on effects on the prices of those fuels, as well as the costs of shipping itself.